Notes

Thank you very much for your further elaboration! You emphasized the satisfaction derived from your past investment achievements, and the deeply ingrained concept of “avoiding lifestyle creep,” which allows me to understand your confusion more precisely. Your current dilemma is completely understandable, as it touches upon the core of personal growth and value transformation. Your successful investment history has shaped your source of fulfillment, and your principle of “avoiding lifestyle creep” has historically been the foundation of your success. Now, you are feeling a new need, but your past tenets seem to be hindering your acceptance of this change. ...

Cognition and Strategy in Stock Market Investing: Being an Observer The most foolish thing an adult can do is preach to others After deeply observing multiple stock trading groups, I have gained a deeper understanding of the essence of investing and the collective behavior within the market, leading to my own investment principles and thoughts. The investment market is like a bathtub, where the fish swim around—noisy and chaotic. I realized that a true investor should not jump into the tub to swim with them, but rather stand at a higher dimension, observing calmly and planning rationally. Here are my thoughts: ...

The purpose of conformity is to avoid the complete loss of social support When peers who hold the same dissent provide a certain level of social support, the loss of group social support is not absolute. However, when the originally supportive peers abandon the participant and begin agreeing with the majority opinion, the power of the majority reasserts its maximum efficacy—the rate of conformity rises again to 30%. Therefore, in the situation set up by Asch, the primary force at play is undoubtedly normative social influence rather than informational influence. ...

Influencing Human Behavior Like Training a Dog Shaping is a learning procedure. In this learning procedure, initially, rewards are given for any behavior similar to the target behavior; then, the standard is gradually raised, and rewards are given only for behaviors that are increasingly similar to the target behavior; finally, rewards are given only when the target behavior actually occurs. Some teachers apply this instrumental behavior shaping method in daily teaching. For example, when training students to think about problems, initially, regardless of what answer the student gives, the teacher gives verbal praise for the behavior of raising their hand bravely; then, rewards are selectively given for increasingly better answers. ...

If you truly care about your own health, don’t eat toxic food; and if you truly care about the health of your mind, stay away from the input provided by traditional media. Even if your genes are good and your physical foundation is strong, long-term consumption of junk food and aggressively engineered foods will eventually make you sick. Even those with high IQs will become intellectually weak if they constantly consume media input, propaganda, and the ideas others have chewed over.

Hitler’s Propaganda Philosophy The audience’s capacity for reception is extremely limited; they grasp very little. Furthermore, they are highly forgetful. Given this, effective propaganda must be concentrated on only a few key points and must definitely be presented in the form of slogans, until every individual understands the meaning of that slogan. To sacrifice this principle in pursuit of comprehensiveness is to inevitably doom the effective propaganda effort, as people cannot digest or retain what is presented to them. ...

In the long river of human history, there are countless cults, Nazis, and dictators who, through various means, manipulate the human heart and consolidate power, bringing severe disasters to society. Looking at their common methods, although the forms are different, the essence shares many similarities. Below, we summarize eleven common tactics, hoping to warn future generations and prevent them from repeating the mistakes. Their Methods 1. Cult of Personality: Shaping Absolute Authority This is the foundation of all authoritarian rule. Through various propaganda means, the leader is molded into an image of omnipotence, brilliance, and martial prowess, often even endowed with supernatural abilities, making them a “god” in the eyes of the populace. This creation of personal worship aims to strip the people of their independent thinking ability, forcing them to blindly obey the leader’s will. ...

The Only Normal Source of Wealth Must Be Production The core reason why the vast majority of people fail is not because they don’t engage in production, nor is it because they never accumulate, but rather because they fail to accumulate for a sufficient period of time. Consequently, the amount of money is insufficient, and thus, they fail to acquire or master true wealth. Life should be centered around production. Everything else, no matter what it is, must be ranked after it. Nothing is more important than production—at least, until basic necessities are met. ...

The stock market is a powerful wealth-building tool and you should be investing in it. But realize the market and the value of your shares will sometimes drop dramatically. This is absolutely normal and to be expected. When it happens, ignore the drops and buy more shares. This will be much, much harder than you think. People all around you will panic. The news media will be screaming Sell, Sell, Sell!

Throughout my investment journey, I have come to trust the S&P 500 and consider it the core of my wealth storage. By understanding the US Constitution, the free society, and the powerful military behind it, I believe that the S&P 500 represents the strongest companies and the most stable economy in the world. Here’s why I made this decision and the thinking behind it: The US Constitution and Free Society are the Strongest Guarantees I firmly believe that the US Constitution and the free society structure are among the most valuable assets in the world. The rule of law and the powerful military, particularly the aircraft carrier, provide a unique guarantee for global investors. If the US Constitution protects investors’ rights and the economy relies on the free market, it will provide a solid foundation for my chosen assets. ...

The Market is Equivalent to an Average-Intelligence Person As a participant in the trading market, it is unlikely that you will sell at the absolute peak, and it is also difficult for you to buy at the absolute bottom… Why? The reason is very clear and very simple: People are Impulsive and Emotional The highest point and the lowest point are both caused by the “impulsiveness” of a small portion of traders… ...

Frequency is the Fundamental Factor That Determines Everything Short-term, it acts like a voting machine; long-term, it acts like a weighing machine. The Higher the Trading Frequency, the Closer the Trade is to a Zero-Sum Game The result of frequent trading is the accumulation of transaction fees, which eventually devours all your profits and principal. The shorter the prediction, the closer it is to a coin flip; the longer the prediction, the closer it is to true logical deduction… ...

Capital Exhaustion at Entry There are many frustrating laws in the trading market, such as: Whenever you need money, the market crashes! It might not seem logically supported, so you might temporarily doubt it, but you will definitely experience the power of this law. For all beginners, this law is almost eternally true: As soon as you buy, it starts falling; As soon as you sell, it starts rising… Why does this paradoxical situation occur? Because the fundamental reason for the end of every market cycle is capital exhaustion at entry. In other words, when even the auntie selling tea eggs on the street starts discussing stocks, the market’s “entry capital” is already on the verge of running out… Think about it: even someone completely unrelated to the topic knows this. When it’s time to rush in and make money, doesn’t that mean the market cycle is over? ...

BTC broke through $100,000, but I completely don’t understand the logic behind it. So, I don’t want to participate either. If you don’t understand it, don’t do it. Today, I sold all 750 of my POL at 0.68. There’s no specific reason; I just feel that the rebound was high enough. And I’m not optimistic about the future of the Polygon chain. Extreme Fear of Missing Out Fear of Missing Out, abbreviated as FOMO, is also referred to as Fear of Missing Opportunity. ...

Risk is a Necessity Many risks are unavoidable. What we should do is assess the risks and take them. Some risks are not worth taking, no matter how high the potential return is. Risk Assessment I. What is your ultimate goal? If achieved, what will the situation be like? II. How can you achieve the goal with little or no risk? In other words, what elements can guarantee you reach your target smoothly? III. Are the options mentioned above feasible or desirable? If not, how much risk do you need to take to get what you want? ...

People Dislike Hearing Bad News or anything that contradicts their existing views and conclusions. Therefore, if certain things might be painful, the human brain will start to act, trying to deny reality. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate, believes: “(People often don’t even want to invest) the minimum effort to genuinely figure out what they did wrong. This isn’t accidental; it’s because they simply don’t want to know.” Everyone Avoids We all invent stories for ourselves and avoid the facts. Even if you spend a lot of time studying behavioral economics, your skills might only improve slightly. You will always make mistakes. People often ignore or refuse to acknowledge the faults of those they love, and tend to distort the facts to accommodate them. ...

A Year of Substantial Returns All these returns come from luck, because I haven’t encountered a test moment. The market has been smooth sailing, placing it in the top 5% of the last 100 years. Therefore, I don’t consider my investment skill to be very high. The real test will come in those bad years, in the moments when everyone is panicking. Significant Increase in Reading This year, I read a large amount of investment and finance-related books. I forgot many, but I also retained some. It’s just like the food I eat: some becomes a part of the body, and some goes straight into the toilet. ...

Any Form of Prediction is Merely Speculation Investing is a probabilistic activity, and decisions made in a very rational manner sometimes result in poor outcomes. Even when decision-makers formulate a perfect plan and implement it smoothly, unfavorable results can still occur. However, in the long run, focusing on following the correct process, rather than any specific intermediate result, is always wise. Whenever you want to buy a stock, someone is selling… so, you are forced to frequently ask this question: “Why am I the correct side in this transaction?” ...

Although this book enjoys great acclaim in the literary world, from a personal perspective, I haven’t felt a strong emotional resonance with The Old Man and the Sea. My initial feeling is that the story of this book doesn’t deeply move me. In my view, the actions of the old man, Santiago, are reckless and irrational. His persistence and never-give-up spirit, conversely, actually make me feel a sense of aversion. I believe that his irrational battle with the large fish, ignoring potential risks and failures, and failing to stop the adventure in time, is flawed from the perspective of economics and rational decision-making. His sunk cost is too high, and even when there is nothing left to gain, he still insists until the very end. ...

We shouldn’t worry about losing at the starting line, because most people in the world quit halfway through. As long as you persevere on the path of self-education, you are guaranteed to be the one who laughs until the end.