股市与经济:关注主人而非狗
股市像一条非常兴奋的狗,这只狗被拴在长长的狗绳的一头,主人牵着狗绳,狗随意向四面八方嗅来嗅去。 假设在这个例子中,狗主人代表经济,他正在纽约市步行,从哥伦布圆环出发,穿过中央公园,到达大都会博物馆。从上一秒到下一秒,狗可能会向右或向左转,它的运动不可能被精确预测。 ...
股市像一条非常兴奋的狗,这只狗被拴在长长的狗绳的一头,主人牵着狗绳,狗随意向四面八方嗅来嗅去。 假设在这个例子中,狗主人代表经济,他正在纽约市步行,从哥伦布圆环出发,穿过中央公园,到达大都会博物馆。从上一秒到下一秒,狗可能会向右或向左转,它的运动不可能被精确预测。 ...
伯顿·马尔基尔的格言:“永远不要从气喘吁吁的人那里买东西。” 沃伦·巴菲特也说过类似的话:“小心那些让人喝彩的投资活动;真正的投资妙招通常十分无趣。” ...
On Saving and Thrifty Lifestyle The Power of High Savings Save and invest an unwavering 50% of your income. The beauty of a high savings rate is twofold: you learn to live on less, even as you have more to invest. When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. Financial Independence vs. Dependence If your lifestyle matches or exceeds your income, you are a slave. It’s better to adapt yourself and your attitudes to the numbers than to adapt the strategies to your psychological comfort levels. Long-Term Savings Strategy If financial independence is your goal, your savings rate in these years should be high. As you invest that money each month, it serves to smooth out the market’s volatility. Be persistent. Life is uncertain. On the Stock Market and Investing Fundamental Investment Rules Rule #1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1. The Stock Market as a Wealth-Building Tool The stock market is a powerful wealth-building tool, and you should be investing in it. Embrace indexing. Crashes, pullbacks, and corrections are all absolutely normal. Avoiding Short-Term Speculation Any investing done short-term is, by definition, speculation. Market timing is an unwinnable game over time. To play this market-timing game well even once, you need to be right twice: first, you need to call the high, and then, you need to call the low. Market Dynamics and Long-Term Perspective The market always recovers. Always. Everybody makes money when the market is rising. But what determines whether it will make you wealthy or leave you bleeding on the side of the road is what you do during the times it is collapsing. Common Pitfalls in the Stock Market Most people lose money in the stock market. Here’s why: We think we can time the market. We believe we can pick individual stocks. We believe we can pick winning mutual fund managers. Dollar-Cost Averaging By dollar-cost averaging, you are betting that the market will drop, saving yourself some pain. For any given year, the odds of this happening are only about 23%. But the market is about 77% more likely to rise, in which case you will have spared yourself some gain. With each new invested portion, you’ll be paying more for your shares. Put all your eggs in one basket and forget about it.
特朗普的新关税政策与股市暴跌 特朗普宣布了最新的关税政策后,全球股市应声大跌。今年至今,市场已经损失了20%。虽然我并不慌张,但这次经历让我深刻理解了一个道理:投资组合中必须保持一定量的现金。 ...
There are just three primary reasons for which you should consider selling your stocks: 1. Investment Reasons No Longer Exist For example, Blockbuster was a great company for many years and was well ahead of the curve when it came to in-home DVD rentals. However, they didn’t adapt to the streaming revolution. In fact, Blockbuster turned down the chance to buy Netflix on three separate occasions. 2. Compromised Management Small lies eventually lead to bigger lies. If you begin to spot inconsistencies in the way management communicates its shortcomings or if it starts to treat everyone else like a bunch of dunces, it is likely that the management is incompetent. You’re best served by getting out quickly. ...
The Secret to Successful Investing What is the secret to successful investing? It is to do nothing—well, not quite nothing, but our point is that to be successful, you need to limit your activity as much as possible when it comes to managing your investments. The Risks of Short-Term Trading Short-term trading involves all kinds of risks. Essentially, a trader is attempting to gauge how the market feels about a stock. Here’s an experiment for you to conduct: walk over to your partner and try to guess how they’re feeling about something. You might be able to guess what is wrong some of the time, but not all the time. This is similar to trying to predict the market’s sentiment. ...
If you don’t have the cash to pay your bills, you may be tempted to sell some of your investments before they have a chance to fully blossom. Your Rainy Day Fund Purpose: A 3-6 month reserve of living expenses in case you or your partner lose your jobs. Storage: This money should be held in readily accessible cash and not invested under any circumstances. Tuition Payments Purpose: Money needed to pay bills or your child’s tuition. Guidance: This money should not be invested in the markets. Ensure it is kept in a safe, liquid form. Down Payments Purpose: Funds for a future home purchase. Guidance: Even if you’re planning on purchasing a home several years down the road, avoid relying on the stock market to generate enough money for a down payment. Keep these funds in a stable, low-risk account.
股市操作前检查单 一、通用原则(每次操作前必读) 目的确认 我的操作是否服务于长期投资目标? 是否因短期市场波动、情绪或他人建议而冲动操作? (若“是”,请暂停并冷静复盘) 成本意识 交易费用(佣金、印花税、管理费)是否显著影响收益? 是否因频繁交易导致“摩擦成本”累积? 纪律性 ...
1. 再平衡的基本概念 资产配置:投资者根据风险承受能力和收益目标,设定不同资产类别的比例(如股票、债券、现金等)。 市场波动:市场波动会导致资产比例偏离目标,如股票上涨可能使其在组合中的占比过高。 再平衡:通过买卖资产,将组合调整回目标比例。 2. 再平衡的方法 时间再平衡:按固定时间间隔(如每季度或每年)调整组合。 比例再平衡:当某类资产偏离目标比例超过一定阈值(如5%)时进行调整。 3. 再平衡的优点 风险控制:防止单一资产占比过高,降低风险。 纪律性:避免情绪化操作,保持投资策略的稳定性。 收益优化:通过低买高卖,可能提升长期收益。 4. 再平衡的缺点 交易成本:频繁调整可能增加交易费用。 税务影响:在应税账户中,再平衡可能产生资本利得税。 市场趋势:在单边市场中,再平衡可能降低收益。 5. 再平衡的实施 确定目标比例:根据风险偏好设定资产配置。 监控组合:定期检查资产比例。 执行调整:通过买卖资产恢复目标比例。 总结 再平衡是“用短期交易成本换取长期风险控制”的工具,适合震荡市或行业轮动市场,但在单边趋势市中可能付出机会成本。执行时建议结合阈值规则(如偏离10%再调仓),而非机械按时间操作。并且每年最多操作两次 ...
要成為贏家,還是避免成為輸家? 積極主動可以得到更多報酬,但長期來看並沒有很好。 運氣不好時會遇到不如預期的發展,產生挫折。 短期的成功受到普遍認可,卻沒有對紀錄的持久與穩定有足夠的注意。 攻守转换的时机 很少有人(如果真的有的話)有能力即時配合市場條件去轉換戰術,所以投資人應該堅持採用一個方法,期望這個方法能適用在多種不同的情境。 ...
我們應該花時間試著從產業、公司和證券等可知的事物中尋找價值,而不是根據我們針對比較不可知的總體經濟世界和市場大盤表現的預測來做決定。 因為不能準確知道未來的樣貌,所以我們必須透過堅定的信念、分析未來後所產生的看法,以及在出現機會時用較低的金額買進等等方法來獲取價值。 我們必須採取防禦型投資,因為很多結果有可能對我們不利,更重要的是在負面結果下確認得以在市場上存活,而非在有利結果下保證得到最大報酬。 為了增加成功的機會,在出現極端情況的時候,我們必須強調採取的行動要與群眾相反,在市場低迷的時候積極行動,在市場亢奮的時候小心謹慎。 因為結果本來就高度不確定,所以除非已經經過很多實驗驗證,不然我們必須以懷疑的角度看待決策與產生的結果——不論是好結果還是壞結果。
“你需要的不是大量的行动,而是大量的耐心。金钱是从没有耐心的人转移到有耐心人的口袋。” 投机,一次两次或许可以赚取暴利,但长久而言,不可复制、不可持续,甚至注定失败。 真正的成功,靠的是复利,靠的是日拱一卒,靠的是可持续的发展。 ...
在別人沮喪拋售時買進、在別人興奮搶買時賣出,全都需要最大的勇氣,但也會提供最豐厚的獲利。 「低買高賣」是句古老名言,但是迷失在市場周期的投資人常常做出相反的舉動。適當的作法應該是採取反向行為: ...
渴望赚得更多、恐惧错失机会、好与其他人比较的个性、群体的影响和成功投资的梦想,这些因素几乎都普遍存在。因此,他们对大多数投资人和市场都有深远的集体影响,结果就是出现错误,而这些错误频繁、普遍,还会重复发生。 ...
尤其在多頭行情時,常會聽到很多人說:「高風險的投資會帶來更高的收益。如果你想要賺更多的錢,那就去承擔更高的風險。」事實上不可能靠著高風險投資帶來高收益,為什麼呢?答案很簡單,如果高風險投資可以可靠的創造高收益,那他們的風險就不高! ...
最好在股票崩盤時接手那些不管價格多少都要被迫賣出的股票,沒有什麼比這更好的事了,我們最好的交易中,有不少都是因為這個理由。不過,我們還有兩個觀察: 你無法依靠著只是從強制賣家手中買進股票,或是把股票賣給強制買家為生,他們不會總是出現在市場上,只在極端的危機和泡沫的罕見時刻才會現身。 在我們的世界中,從強制賣家買進股票是最好的事,那麼最糟的事就是淪為強制賣家。這意思是指安排好你的財務很重要,你要確保在最艱困的時刻都能持有股票,不用被迫賣出。這既需要長期資金,也要有強大的心理素質。 ...
我們在個體經濟學的基礎課程上學到,需求曲線會向右下傾斜,隨著價格提高,需求量會減少。換句話說,在高價時,需求量比較少,低價時,需求量比較多。這很合理,這也就是為什麼商店在特價時的業績會比較好。 雖然很多地方都如此運作,但在投資界卻遠遠不是如此。在這裡,很多人會在價格上漲時更愛買進的投資標的,因為他們覺得這證實了他們做的決策;而在價格下跌時,他們會比較不喜歡買進的投資標的,因為他們開始懷疑當初的買進決定。 ...
對價值投資人來說,「資產」並不是因為有吸引力(或是其他人發現它有吸引力)而短期投資的概念。資產是一個有形的物體,應該有明確的實質價值,如果能用低於實質價值的價格買到,就應該考慮買進。因此,聰明的投資應該建立在對實質價值的估計上,這些估計必須以可用的訊息為基礎,嚴謹地計算出來。 (喬) 〈最重要的事〉(THE MOST IMPORTANT THING) ...
效率市場理論背後有哪些假設 有很多努力研究的投資人。 他們聰明、勤奮、客觀、積極,而且準備充分。 他們都能取得可用的資訊,且取得管道大致相同。 他們都能買進、賣出或放空(也就是打賭會下跌)所有資產。 因為有這些理由,效率市場假說認為,可用的資訊會順利而有效整合到價格中,在價格與價值不符時進行調整,消除其中的差異。 ...
投資思考必須與眾不同 維持平均報酬以上所需要的卓越洞察力、直覺、價值觀念,以及對市場心理面的了解。想要做到這一點,就需要第二層思考。 做對事情也許是成功投資的必要條件,但不會是充分條件。你必須比其他人做對更多事,這意味著,你的思考方式必須與眾不同。 ...