Fear-Based Stability and Rebellion Equilibrium
In authoritarian regimes, leaders often secure prolonged control through oppressive tactics that prevent opposition from organizing or gaining momentum. From a game theory perspective, this strategy can be understood as a “fear-based stability,” where the cost of opposition is high, and the risk of repression discourages dissenters from taking action. In such regimes, individuals face a prisoner's dilemma: although collective action could increase the likelihood of challenging the ruler successfully, the first to oppose often suffers severe consequences if others do not join. This creates a situation where everyone prefers to avoid the risk, maintaining a Nash equilibrium in which silence and compliance are rational choices. This mutual inaction leads to a stable yet coercive equilibrium where the authoritarian’s rule remains unchallenged. ...