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Especially during bull markets, you often hear many people say: “High-risk investments bring higher returns. If you want to make more money, then take on higher risks.” In fact, it is impossible for high-risk investments to reliably generate high returns. Why? The answer is simple: If high-risk investments can reliably generate high returns, then their risk isn’t high! The correct way to say it should be that, in order to attract capital, high-risk investments must offer higher potential returns, higher guaranteed returns, or higher expected returns, but this absolutely does not mean that higher potential returns will definitely be realized. ...

It is best to acquire stocks during a market crash, especially those that are forced to be sold regardless of the price. There is nothing better than this; many of our best trades are made for this very reason. However, we have two observations: You cannot rely solely on buying stocks from forced sellers or selling stocks to forced buyers for a living, as they won’t always appear in the market—they only emerge during extreme crises and rare bubbles. In our world, buying stocks from forced sellers is the best thing, so the worst thing is becoming a forced seller. This means it is crucial to arrange your finances well; you must ensure that you hold stocks even in the most difficult times, without being forced to sell them. This requires both long-term capital and strong psychological fortitude. ...

We learned in our basic course in microeconomics that the demand curve slopes downward, meaning that as the price increases, the quantity demanded decreases. In other words, when prices are high, the quantity demanded is lower, and when prices are low, the quantity demanded is higher. This makes perfect sense, which is why stores perform better when they run sales. While this operates in many places, it is far from the case in the investment world. Here, many people prefer to buy assets when prices rise because they feel it confirms their decision; conversely, they are less inclined to buy when prices fall because they begin to doubt their initial purchase decision. ...

Calorie Control: Daily total intake approx. 1500kcal (BMR deficit approx. 300kcal) Nutritional Ratio: Protein 30%/Carbs 40%/Fat 30% Blood Sugar Management: Choose medium-low GI foods, eat bagels in portions Simplified Prep: Prep time per meal < 15 minutes Daily Meal Plan Template (Can be flexibly substituted based on ingredients) Breakfast (400kcal) 1/2 Cranberry Bagel (200kcal) Boiled Eggs ×2 (140kcal) Unsweetened Black Coffee/Green Tea Nutritional Focus: Bagel provides fast carbs to kickstart metabolism; egg protein extends satiety Morning Snack (100kcal) ...

For value investors, “asset” is not merely a concept for short-term investment because it has appeal (or because others find it appealing). An asset is a tangible item that should possess clear intrinsic value; if it can be acquired at a price lower than its intrinsic value, it should be considered for purchase. Therefore, intelligent investment should be based on the estimation of intrinsic value, and these estimations must be calculated rigorously using available information. (George) The Most Important Thing (THE MOST IMPORTANT THING)

Assumptions of Efficient Market Theory There are many investors who put effort into research. They are smart, diligent, objective, proactive, and well-prepared. They can all obtain available information, and the channels through which they obtain it are roughly the same. They can buy, sell, or short (i.e., bet on a decline) all assets. Due to these reasons, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that available information will smoothly and effectively integrate into prices, adjusting when the price deviates from the intrinsic value, thereby eliminating the discrepancy. ...

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Investment Thinking Must Be Unique To maintain returns above average, one requires exceptional insight, intuition, a sense of value, and an understanding of market psychology. To achieve this, one needs second-order thinking. Doing the right thing might be a necessary condition for successful investing, but it is not a sufficient condition. You must do more right things than others, which means your way of thinking must be unique. What is Second-Order Thinking? First-order thinking says: “This is a good company, so buy this stock!” Second-order thinking says: “This is a good company, but everyone thinks this company is good, so it isn’t a good company. This stock is overvalued, the market price is too high, so sell!” First-order thinking says: “From a forward-looking perspective, economic growth is sluggish and inflation is rising, so sell the holdings!” Second-order thinking says: “The economic outlook is terrible, but everyone is selling stocks out of panic, so we should buy!” First-order thinking says: “I believe this company’s earnings will decline, so sell!” Second-order thinking says: “I believe the decline in this company’s earnings will be less than expected; an unexpected surprise will push the stock price up, so buy!” What Second-Order Thinkers Consider What range of outcomes might occur in the future? Which outcome do I believe will occur? How high is the probability that my view is correct? What is the market consensus? How large is the difference between my expectation and the market consensus? How closely does the market price of this asset align with the price believed by the market consensus? And how about the price according to my view? Is the consensus sentiment reflected in the price overly optimistic or pessimistic? If the market consensus proves to be correct, what impact will that have on the asset price? If my expectation is the correct one, what impact will that have? There is a clear and significant difference in the workload between first-order thinking and second-order thinking. The number of people capable of second-order thinking is clearly much smaller than the number capable of first-order thinking. First-order thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-order thinkers know that successful investing is contrary to simplicity. This doesn’t mean you won’t encounter many people who try to make investing sound simple, which I call “mercenaries.” Brokerage firms want you to believe that everyone is capable of investing, and that every trade only requires ten dollars. Fund companies don’t want you to believe that you are capable of investing, but they want you to believe that they are capable of investing, so you will put your money into actively managed funds and pay higher management fees.

The Basic Potential of an Excellent Merchant Always maintain interest in others, focus your interest and energy on them, initiate conversations centered around others, and conduct exchanges revolving around other people. Achieving this while also mastering the boundaries—asking questions that everyone finds comfortable, rather than feeling constantly scrutinized and uncomfortable—is quite difficult. ...

I. Price Anchor Reconstruction (Anchoring Effect + Mental Account Reset) App Store Pricing Strategy List the high price of $99.99/year upon listing (never actually discounted) Product description emphasizes “Enterprise-Grade Service” and “Original Price for Institutional Procurement Only” Feature list uses B2B terminology such as “Enterprise Security Solution” and “Million-Level Data Processing” Cognitive Framework Shift Publish a “User Benefit Upgrade Announcement” on the official website/social media: “To celebrate users reaching 100,000, we are temporarily opening the free personal channel (Original Price $99.99 → 0 Yuan)” Set a countdown timer: Display remaining free slots (dynamic fake data, always maintaining <10% availability) II. Zero-Price Trigger Design (Dual-Channel Loss Aversion) Registration Code Acquisition Mechanism Design a “Golden Invitation Code” system: Unlock Enterprise Edition features valued at $99.99 (limited to individual users) Set up a dual loss framework: ✅ Claim Now → Receive VIP privileges valued at $99.99 (Permanent) ❌ Decline Claim → Lose the maximum annual benefit (Red text warning) Sunk Cost Implantation Obtaining the invitation code requires completing three steps: Enter phone number to receive verification code (Initiating commitment consistency) Watch a 15-second product video (Attention sinking) Select three interest tags (Personalized anchoring) III. Social Currency Creation (Viral Spread Engine) Vanity Sharing Design Automatically generate a “Digital Asset Report” after successful registration: “You have saved $99.99, surpassing 92% of users” The sharing page includes: Dynamic Ranking Bar: “Your free code is valued by over XX people” Virtual Badge: “Savvy Decision Maker,” “0 Yuan Challenge Success” Group Behavior Stimulation Create a “Limited-Time Free Alliance” leaderboard: Invite 1 person to earn a “Credit Star,” which can be exchanged for an extension of the free period. The top 100 display real user avatars, triggering competitive psychology. IV. Scarcity Maintenance System (Dynamic Fake Resources) Multi-Dimensional Scarcity Prompts Geo-fencing technology: “Only 43 free slots remain in Chaoyang District, Beijing where you are located.” Device identification prompt: “iOS user exclusive quota is about to run out.” Ghost Inventory Strategy: Real-time display of “Users Currently Claiming”: Example Algorithm (Actual data must be faked to appear real) ...

When we frantically acquire things we don’t need, especially under the temptation of “free,” it may seem irrational, but from the perspectives of microeconomics and psychology, we can find profound explanations. Analysis from the Perspective of Microeconomics: “Zero Price Effect”: This is a crucial concept in behavioral economics, specifically used to explain the magic of “free.” Traditional economics posits that price is merely a quantitative indicator; a price decrease increases demand, but a drop to zero is just a linear extension of that demand. However, behavioral economics points out that “free” is not just a zero price; it represents a qualitative leap, completely altering people’s decision-making patterns. ...

Anchoring Effect Most people only know what they truly want when they reach a specific situation. We want to buy a sports bike, but don’t know which model, until we see a champion of the Tour de France advertising a certain model, and then we can clarify our desired purchase; We want to replace speakers, but don’t know what kind, until we hear a set that is better than the original, and then we are clear; We don’t even know how to live, until relatives or friends one day give us a sudden realization that the life they are living is exactly what we aspire to. Everything is relative; that is the key. ...

The winning group splitting into left and right factions is almost a social physical law When fighting over any scarce resource, if one group teams up and the other doesn’t, the first group tends to win. This is the fundamental reason humans tend to consolidate into two factions and fight each other over scarce resources until one faction wins. The winning team enjoys a brief honeymoon, after which it often divides into new left and right factions, and the battle begins again. ...

When the market is most valuable is not when everyone wants to buy stocks, but when even the auntie sweeping the floor next to you can tell you exactly how high a certain stock will rise. History’s repeated cycles of bull and bear markets tell us that when every person in the market is avoiding purchasing these assets, it is often when stock prices are at their lowest. If you look at things from a long-term perspective, market downturns are precisely the opportunity for value investors to pick good stocks. Therefore, you must know how to exit when the crowd is roaring, and enter when it is dark—that is true selling high and buying low. ...

Parable of the Sower The New Testament, in Matthew’s Gospel, records the Parable of the Sower. There was a sower who went out to sow. When he sowed, some seeds fell by the roadside and were eaten by the birds; some fell on shallow, stony ground. Because the soil was not deep, they sprouted the fastest, but when the sun came out and shone, because they had no roots, they withered. Some fell among the thorns, and the thorns grew up and choked them; and some fell on good soil, producing fruit—some a hundredfold, some sixtyfold, and some thirtyfold. Those who have ears to hear, let them hear. ...

Review of Basic Theories in Communication Studies 1. Agenda-Setting Theory Proponents: Maxwell McCombs and Donald Shaw Core Idea: Media influences the public’s ranking of issue importance by selecting and emphasizing certain topics. Explanation: What the media reports, the public tends to focus on. For example, if the media constantly reports on climate change, people may perceive climate change as one of the most important current issues. 2. Spiral of Silence Theory Proponents: Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann Core Idea: People fear being isolated for expressing minority views, so they choose to remain silent, causing the mainstream views to become stronger. Explanation: In a social setting, if someone supports an unpopular policy, they might choose not to express their opinion due to fear of being ridiculed or excluded. ...

Human Vulnerabilities: Greed: The unlimited desire for wealth, profit, and benefits, making one easily attracted to temptations like “get rich quick,” “insider information,” and “low risk, high return.” Influencers utilize this psychology by offering giveaways, benefits, and “secret” investment tips. Sloth: The unwillingness to put in effort, craving easy success, happiness, knowledge, etc. The content provided by influencers—such as “learn in one click,” “easy weight loss,” and “passive income techniques”—directly exploits this tendency. ...

Recently read Enough_ True Measures of Money, Business, and Life by John C. Bogle, which gave me a deeper understanding of the essence of the market. Rather than technical analysis and frequent trading, it is about long-term commitment to corporate value. I want to organize these thoughts for future review and hope they can inspire friends who are exploring the path of investing. Let’s dive into some insightful quotes about investing and what they truly mean. ...

Two months ago, I made a trade my first conscious speculative trade , and one month ago, I made another rationalization . It now seems this was a completely failed speculation. I have learned some lessons: Speculation is a negative-sum game Due to the existence of transaction costs. No matter how sound your analysis is, speculation is bound to fail In this stock market, there are countless people who are smarter and have better judgment than you. You are playing against hundreds of millions of shareholders. This is not the issue of “among three, there must be a master”; this is billions of people on the stage—many are dumber than you, but tens of thousands are stronger than you. If you speculate, you are merely someone else’s profit. ...

Superficiality, Hindering Deep Analysis: Problem: Simply stating that “everything has two sides,” much like applying a label, stops further thinking and exploration. Without deeply digging into what those two sides are, the specific conditions that generate them, and which side is more important in a specific context, and how to weigh them. Analysis: This assertion simplifies a complex issue into a simple formula, masking the deeper causes, mechanisms, and impacts behind the problem. It easily satisfies people with a surface-level understanding, lacking the drive to trace the roots, ultimately leading to a shallow grasp of the issue and preventing the proposal of effective solutions. For example, when discussing the impact of a policy, if one only says “it has pros and cons” without analyzing what the specific benefits are, what the specific drawbacks are, and what impact they have on different groups, the actual effectiveness of the policy cannot be assessed. Relativism Run Amok, Blurring Objective Standards: ...