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投资等于出去赌马。我们要寻找一匹获胜几率是两分之一、赔率是一赔三的马。你要寻找的是标错赔率的赌局。这就是投资的本质。你必须拥有足够多的知识，才能知道赌局的赔率是不是标错了。这就是价值投资。” ...

我们最初是格拉汉姆的信徒，并且通过这种方法取得了一些成功。但随着时间的推移，我们的投资眼光变得更加敏锐。 突破格拉汉姆的局限 我们发现，有些股票的价格虽然是其账面价值的两三倍，但仍然非常便宜。这是因为这些公司具有独特的市场地位，蕴含着持续增长的潜力。可能公司的某个管理人员非常优秀，或者整个管理体系都非常出色。通过突破格拉汉姆的局限，并采用一些可能会让格拉汉姆感到不安的定量方法来寻找价值被低估的股票，我们开始关注那些更为优质的企业。 ...

耐心：不厌倦等待的艺术 你看看那些对冲基金——你认为他们懂得等待吗？他们根本不知道如何等待！在我个人的投资组合中，我曾经连续几年只持有1000万到1200万美元的国债或地方债，然后就不再动它们，只是静静地等待、等待…… ...

一次性投资还是定期买入？ 当你收到一笔遗产或其他一大笔钱时，你是否也想过是一次性全部投资，还是把钱分开逐步投资好？ 过去150年的历史告诉我们，北美股市大约每三年中就有两年上涨。从统计数据来看，你的钱在市场上待的时间越长，它就越有可能变多。所以，解决这个困境的办法就是一次性投资，同时保有市场随时都可能下跌的觉悟。 如果对一次性投资不放心，你可以建立一个简单的系统来进行增量投资（例如，在每月第一天投资总金额的25%，如此持续四个月）。 ...

与十年前相比，今天的创业环境变得更加自由和便利，创业者不再需要依赖传统资源，而是可以通过现代工具和互联网快速、低成本地启动项目！ 一. 创业不再需要“大阵仗” ...

金钱是你用生命能量去换取的东西。你出卖时间换取金钱。内德出卖时间的价钱是一小时100美元而你是一小时20美元，这无所谓。内德的钱跟你无关。你拥有的唯一真正财富就是你的时间，你一生里的分分秒秒。 ...

股市像一条非常兴奋的狗，这只狗被拴在长长的狗绳的一头，主人牵着狗绳，狗随意向四面八方嗅来嗅去。 假设在这个例子中，狗主人代表经济，他正在纽约市步行，从哥伦布圆环出发，穿过中央公园，到达大都会博物馆。从上一秒到下一秒，狗可能会向右或向左转，它的运动不可能被精确预测。 ...

伯顿·马尔基尔的格言：“永远不要从气喘吁吁的人那里买东西。” 沃伦·巴菲特也说过类似的话：“小心那些让人喝彩的投资活动；真正的投资妙招通常十分无趣。” ...

用户研究与洞察 通过使用多个AI工具（如Gemini2.5、Deepresearch、Grok3、Perplexity）围绕Reddit展开深入研究，特别是关注用户的抱怨与评论。生成四份独立的报告，汇总用户的真实反馈，为后续内容创作提供数据支持。 ...

On Saving and Thrifty Lifestyle The Power of High Savings Save and invest an unwavering 50% of your income. The beauty of a high savings rate is twofold: you learn to live on less, even as you have more to invest. When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. Financial Independence vs. Dependence If your lifestyle matches or exceeds your income, you are a slave. It’s better to adapt yourself and your attitudes to the numbers than to adapt the strategies to your psychological comfort levels. Long-Term Savings Strategy If financial independence is your goal, your savings rate in these years should be high. As you invest that money each month, it serves to smooth out the market’s volatility. Be persistent. Life is uncertain. On the Stock Market and Investing Fundamental Investment Rules Rule #1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1. The Stock Market as a Wealth-Building Tool The stock market is a powerful wealth-building tool, and you should be investing in it. Embrace indexing. Crashes, pullbacks, and corrections are all absolutely normal. Avoiding Short-Term Speculation Any investing done short-term is, by definition, speculation. Market timing is an unwinnable game over time. To play this market-timing game well even once, you need to be right twice: first, you need to call the high, and then, you need to call the low. Market Dynamics and Long-Term Perspective The market always recovers. Always. Everybody makes money when the market is rising. But what determines whether it will make you wealthy or leave you bleeding on the side of the road is what you do during the times it is collapsing. Common Pitfalls in the Stock Market Most people lose money in the stock market. Here’s why: We think we can time the market. We believe we can pick individual stocks. We believe we can pick winning mutual fund managers. Dollar-Cost Averaging By dollar-cost averaging, you are betting that the market will drop, saving yourself some pain. For any given year, the odds of this happening are only about 23%. But the market is about 77% more likely to rise, in which case you will have spared yourself some gain. With each new invested portion, you’ll be paying more for your shares. Put all your eggs in one basket and forget about it.

日期计算 今天是4月20号，那么14天之后就是34号，那就是34减30——5月4号。因为20加14等于34，所以日期就会是4月34号。而4月34号就等于5月4号，仅此而已（图2.6）。她发明了一个不存在的日期，以便让自己的推导直达目标。而这丝毫没有妨碍她得到正确的结果！复数就是这样不期而至的。 ...

从零到一：我的独立APP之旅 折腾了一周，我的第一个独立开发的APP终于上架了！售价9.99美元，第二天就卖出了两份。这对我来说是一个全新的开始，一个新的收入渠道就此开启 🥳🥳🥳 ...

特朗普的新关税政策与股市暴跌 特朗普宣布了最新的关税政策后，全球股市应声大跌。今年至今，市场已经损失了20%。虽然我并不慌张，但这次经历让我深刻理解了一个道理：投资组合中必须保持一定量的现金。 ...

二战中英国拥有了能在夜间瞄准的雷达，但不希望德军发现这一点。于是谎称自己的飞行员大量吃胡萝卜获得了超常的夜视能力。你所接触的大道理，基本上都是在教你吃胡萝卜。 ...

0401 开发者账号与基础设置 注册开发者账号 首先，我注册了一个开发者账号。 部署 Cloudflare 然后，我部署了 Cloudflare。 添加 Gemini 支持 最后，添加了 Gemini 支持。 0402 内购通道接入 接入内购通道 接下来，我接入了内购通道。 0403 AI 单元重构 重构 AI 单元 我重构了整个 AI 单元。 ...

高期待，伴随高焦虑。 他们期待再次用成绩来证明自己的优秀，但内在的极度焦虑感又在不停地告诉自己，“你不够努力，你不够好，你做不到”。那些本该投入在学习上的能量，被这样的角斗和撕扯耗尽，成绩像滚雪球般下滑，直至有一天，丧失了踏进学校的勇气。 ...

在动物世界与人类世界的对比 在动物世界里，强者吃掉弱者的躯体；在人类世界里，强者吃掉弱者的资源。一旦你在经济上失败了，那么你的整个人生都会坍塌，这个社会就是一个升级版的动物世界。 ...

There are just three primary reasons for which you should consider selling your stocks: 1. Investment Reasons No Longer Exist For example, Blockbuster was a great company for many years and was well ahead of the curve when it came to in-home DVD rentals. However, they didn’t adapt to the streaming revolution. In fact, Blockbuster turned down the chance to buy Netflix on three separate occasions. 2. Compromised Management Small lies eventually lead to bigger lies. If you begin to spot inconsistencies in the way management communicates its shortcomings or if it starts to treat everyone else like a bunch of dunces, it is likely that the management is incompetent. You’re best served by getting out quickly. ...

0325 今日工作完成情况 今天完成了很多工作： 使用AI对正文进行了润色。 制作了着陆页（Landing Page）。 让AI帮我写了小广告，并在论坛上发布了。 晚间的领悟 晚上还有一点小小的领悟：即便是发广告，也是一种创造。这属于内容输出，而不仅仅是内容消费。人应该源源不断地向社会输出一些东西，才能得到自己想要的。 ...

The Secret to Successful Investing What is the secret to successful investing? It is to do nothing—well, not quite nothing, but our point is that to be successful, you need to limit your activity as much as possible when it comes to managing your investments. The Risks of Short-Term Trading Short-term trading involves all kinds of risks. Essentially, a trader is attempting to gauge how the market feels about a stock. Here’s an experiment for you to conduct: walk over to your partner and try to guess how they’re feeling about something. You might be able to guess what is wrong some of the time, but not all the time. This is similar to trying to predict the market’s sentiment. ...