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股市像一条非常兴奋的狗，这只狗被拴在长长的狗绳的一头，主人牵着狗绳，狗随意向四面八方嗅来嗅去。 假设在这个例子中，狗主人代表经济，他正在纽约市步行，从哥伦布圆环出发，穿过中央公园，到达大都会博物馆。从上一秒到下一秒，狗可能会向右或向左转，它的运动不可能被精确预测。 ...

伯顿·马尔基尔的格言：“永远不要从气喘吁吁的人那里买东西。” 沃伦·巴菲特也说过类似的话：“小心那些让人喝彩的投资活动；真正的投资妙招通常十分无趣。” ...

用户研究与洞察 通过使用多个AI工具（如Gemini2.5、Deepresearch、Grok3、Perplexity）围绕Reddit展开深入研究，特别是关注用户的抱怨与评论。生成四份独立的报告，汇总用户的真实反馈，为后续内容创作提供数据支持。 ...

On Saving and Thrifty Lifestyle The Power of High Savings Save and invest an unwavering 50% of your income. The beauty of a high savings rate is twofold: you learn to live on less, even as you have more to invest. When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. Financial Independence vs. Dependence If your lifestyle matches or exceeds your income, you are a slave. It’s better to adapt yourself and your attitudes to the numbers than to adapt the strategies to your psychological comfort levels. Long-Term Savings Strategy If financial independence is your goal, your savings rate in these years should be high. As you invest that money each month, it serves to smooth out the market’s volatility. Be persistent. Life is uncertain. On the Stock Market and Investing Fundamental Investment Rules Rule #1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1. The Stock Market as a Wealth-Building Tool The stock market is a powerful wealth-building tool, and you should be investing in it. Embrace indexing. Crashes, pullbacks, and corrections are all absolutely normal. Avoiding Short-Term Speculation Any investing done short-term is, by definition, speculation. Market timing is an unwinnable game over time. To play this market-timing game well even once, you need to be right twice: first, you need to call the high, and then, you need to call the low. Market Dynamics and Long-Term Perspective The market always recovers. Always. Everybody makes money when the market is rising. But what determines whether it will make you wealthy or leave you bleeding on the side of the road is what you do during the times it is collapsing. Common Pitfalls in the Stock Market Most people lose money in the stock market. Here’s why: We think we can time the market. We believe we can pick individual stocks. We believe we can pick winning mutual fund managers. Dollar-Cost Averaging By dollar-cost averaging, you are betting that the market will drop, saving yourself some pain. For any given year, the odds of this happening are only about 23%. But the market is about 77% more likely to rise, in which case you will have spared yourself some gain. With each new invested portion, you’ll be paying more for your shares. Put all your eggs in one basket and forget about it.

日期计算 今天是4月20号，那么14天之后就是34号，那就是34减30——5月4号。因为20加14等于34，所以日期就会是4月34号。而4月34号就等于5月4号，仅此而已（图2.6）。她发明了一个不存在的日期，以便让自己的推导直达目标。而这丝毫没有妨碍她得到正确的结果！复数就是这样不期而至的。 ...

从零到一：我的独立APP之旅 折腾了一周，我的第一个独立开发的APP终于上架了！售价9.99美元，第二天就卖出了两份。这对我来说是一个全新的开始，一个新的收入渠道就此开启 🥳🥳🥳 ...

特朗普的新关税政策与股市暴跌 特朗普宣布了最新的关税政策后，全球股市应声大跌。今年至今，市场已经损失了20%。虽然我并不慌张，但这次经历让我深刻理解了一个道理：投资组合中必须保持一定量的现金。 ...

二战中英国拥有了能在夜间瞄准的雷达，但不希望德军发现这一点。于是谎称自己的飞行员大量吃胡萝卜获得了超常的夜视能力。你所接触的大道理，基本上都是在教你吃胡萝卜。 ...

0401 开发者账号与基础设置 注册开发者账号 首先，我注册了一个开发者账号。 部署 Cloudflare 然后，我部署了 Cloudflare。 添加 Gemini 支持 最后，添加了 Gemini 支持。 0402 内购通道接入 接入内购通道 接下来，我接入了内购通道。 0403 AI 单元重构 重构 AI 单元 我重构了整个 AI 单元。 ...

高期待，伴随高焦虑。 他们期待再次用成绩来证明自己的优秀，但内在的极度焦虑感又在不停地告诉自己，“你不够努力，你不够好，你做不到”。那些本该投入在学习上的能量，被这样的角斗和撕扯耗尽，成绩像滚雪球般下滑，直至有一天，丧失了踏进学校的勇气。 ...

在动物世界与人类世界的对比 在动物世界里，强者吃掉弱者的躯体；在人类世界里，强者吃掉弱者的资源。一旦你在经济上失败了，那么你的整个人生都会坍塌，这个社会就是一个升级版的动物世界。 ...

There are just three primary reasons for which you should consider selling your stocks: 1. Investment Reasons No Longer Exist For example, Blockbuster was a great company for many years and was well ahead of the curve when it came to in-home DVD rentals. However, they didn’t adapt to the streaming revolution. In fact, Blockbuster turned down the chance to buy Netflix on three separate occasions. 2. Compromised Management Small lies eventually lead to bigger lies. If you begin to spot inconsistencies in the way management communicates its shortcomings or if it starts to treat everyone else like a bunch of dunces, it is likely that the management is incompetent. You’re best served by getting out quickly. ...

0325 今日工作完成情况 今天完成了很多工作： 使用AI对正文进行了润色。 制作了着陆页（Landing Page）。 让AI帮我写了小广告，并在论坛上发布了。 晚间的领悟 晚上还有一点小小的领悟：即便是发广告，也是一种创造。这属于内容输出，而不仅仅是内容消费。人应该源源不断地向社会输出一些东西，才能得到自己想要的。 ...

The Secret to Successful Investing What is the secret to successful investing? It is to do nothing—well, not quite nothing, but our point is that to be successful, you need to limit your activity as much as possible when it comes to managing your investments. The Risks of Short-Term Trading Short-term trading involves all kinds of risks. Essentially, a trader is attempting to gauge how the market feels about a stock. Here’s an experiment for you to conduct: walk over to your partner and try to guess how they’re feeling about something. You might be able to guess what is wrong some of the time, but not all the time. This is similar to trying to predict the market’s sentiment. ...

If you don’t have the cash to pay your bills, you may be tempted to sell some of your investments before they have a chance to fully blossom. Your Rainy Day Fund Purpose: A 3-6 month reserve of living expenses in case you or your partner lose your jobs. Storage: This money should be held in readily accessible cash and not invested under any circumstances. Tuition Payments Purpose: Money needed to pay bills or your child’s tuition. Guidance: This money should not be invested in the markets. Ensure it is kept in a safe, liquid form. Down Payments Purpose: Funds for a future home purchase. Guidance: Even if you’re planning on purchasing a home several years down the road, avoid relying on the stock market to generate enough money for a down payment. Keep these funds in a stable, low-risk account.

股市操作前检查单 一、通用原则（每次操作前必读） 目的确认 我的操作是否服务于长期投资目标？ 是否因短期市场波动、情绪或他人建议而冲动操作？ （若“是”，请暂停并冷静复盘） 成本意识 交易费用（佣金、印花税、管理费）是否显著影响收益？ 是否因频繁交易导致“摩擦成本”累积？ 纪律性 ...

说来说去还是那句名言 市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机 投机是一个 0 和游戏-我的投机教训 降低交易频次的本质 《Enough》投资与投机 市场情绪是随机的 市场只相当于一个中等智商的人,你可能偶尔猜中市场的情绪，但是你赚钱需要连续猜中两次（买点+卖点）。 而你只要猜错一次你就会亏钱。这是一个很简单的数学问题。 ...

消费与需求的反思 很多消費如果仔細分析，其實都是在享受購買和擁有的那一刻心情，「需求」是被想像出來的。女士們，你真的需要那麼多鞋、那麼多衣服嗎？男士們，你真的需要那麼多電子設備嗎？仔細看看，家裡有多少東西十幾年都沒有碰一下了？ ...

1. 再平衡的基本概念 资产配置：投资者根据风险承受能力和收益目标，设定不同资产类别的比例（如股票、债券、现金等）。 市场波动：市场波动会导致资产比例偏离目标，如股票上涨可能使其在组合中的占比过高。 再平衡：通过买卖资产，将组合调整回目标比例。 2. 再平衡的方法 时间再平衡：按固定时间间隔（如每季度或每年）调整组合。 比例再平衡：当某类资产偏离目标比例超过一定阈值（如5%）时进行调整。 3. 再平衡的优点 风险控制：防止单一资产占比过高，降低风险。 纪律性：避免情绪化操作，保持投资策略的稳定性。 收益优化：通过低买高卖，可能提升长期收益。 4. 再平衡的缺点 交易成本：频繁调整可能增加交易费用。 税务影响：在应税账户中，再平衡可能产生资本利得税。 市场趋势：在单边市场中，再平衡可能降低收益。 5. 再平衡的实施 确定目标比例：根据风险偏好设定资产配置。 监控组合：定期检查资产比例。 执行调整：通过买卖资产恢复目标比例。 总结 再平衡是“用短期交易成本换取长期风险控制”的工具，适合震荡市或行业轮动市场，但在单边趋势市中可能付出机会成本。执行时建议结合阈值规则（如偏离10%再调仓），而非机械按时间操作。并且每年最多操作两次 ...

要成為贏家，還是避免成為輸家？ 積極主動可以得到更多報酬，但長期來看並沒有很好。 運氣不好時會遇到不如預期的發展，產生挫折。 短期的成功受到普遍認可，卻沒有對紀錄的持久與穩定有足夠的注意。 攻守转换的时机 很少有人（如果真的有的話）有能力即時配合市場條件去轉換戰術，所以投資人應該堅持採用一個方法，期望這個方法能適用在多種不同的情境。 ...