I. Mathematics and Logic

  1. Compound Interest Principle
  2. Probability Theory (Fermat-Pascal System)
  3. Permutations and Combinations
  4. Decision Tree Analysis
  5. Bayes’ Theorem
  6. Expected Value Calculation
  7. Random Walk Theory
  8. Game Theory
  9. Linear Regression
  10. Nonlinear Systems
  11. Critical Mass (Phase Transition Point)
  12. Power Law Distribution (Long Tail Theory)
  13. Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule)
  14. Butterfly Effect
  15. Fractal Geometry

II. Microeconomics and Business

  1. Opportunity Cost
  2. Economies of Scale
  3. Moat (Competitive Advantage)
  4. Sunk Cost Fallacy
  5. Substitution Effect
  6. Diminishing Marginal Utility
  7. Supply and Demand Relationship
  8. Price Elasticity
  9. Agency Cost
  10. Information Asymmetry
  11. Network Effect
  12. Flywheel Effect
  13. Bilateral Market
  14. Anchoring Effect
  15. Cost Shifting (or Cost Pass-through)

III. Psychology and Behavioral Science

  1. Confirmation Bias
  2. Loss Aversion
  3. Availability Bias
  4. Overconfidence Effect
  5. Conformity (or Herd Mentality)
  6. Social Identity
  7. Self-Serving Bias
  8. Hindsight Bias
  9. Mental Accounting
  10. Selective Attention
  11. Emotional Hijacking
  12. Contrast Effect
  13. Authority Bias
  14. Fear-Based Decision Making
  15. Pleasure-Pain Principle
  16. Cognitive Dissonance
  17. Attribution Bias
  18. Illusion of Control
  19. Adaptive Preference
  20. Decision Fatigue

IV. Physics and Engineering

  1. Redundancy/Backup System
  2. Fracture Point Theory
  3. Law of Conservation of Energy
  4. Second Law of Thermodynamics (Entropy Increase)
  5. Tension and Stress Equilibrium
  6. Feedback Loop (Positive/Negative)
  7. System Stability
  8. Modular Design
  9. Fault Tree Analysis
  10. Safety Margin (Engineering)

V. Biology and Evolution

  1. Survival of the Fittest
  2. Gene Competition
  3. Niche Theory (Ecological Niche Theory)
  4. Co-evolution
  5. Mutation and Selection
  6. Population Dynamics
  7. Metabolic Efficiency
  8. Immune System Principle
  9. Viral Transmission
  10. Principle of Competitive Exclusion

VI. Statistics and Data Analysis

  1. Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
  2. Law of Large Numbers
  3. Regression Mean
  4. Sample Bias
  5. Correlation $\neq$ Causation
  6. Data Visualization Trap
  7. Spurious Correlation
  8. Significance Testing
  9. Data Overfitting
  10. Confounding Variable

VII. Philosophy and Cognitive Science

  1. First Principles
  2. Inversion Thinking (Inversion)
  3. Occam’s Razor
  4. Black Swan Theory
  5. Falsifiability (Popper)
  6. Knowledge Transfer
  7. Metacognition
  8. Cognitive Load Theory
  9. Dual System Thinking (Fast/Slow Thinking)
  10. Humility Hypothesis

VIII. Sociology and History

  1. Cultural Inertia
  2. Institutional Path Dependence
  3. Revolutionary Cycle Theory
  4. Technology Diffusion Curve
  5. Historical Recurrence (or Historical Repetition)
  6. Group Polarization
  7. Paradox of Power Concentration
  8. Interest Group Dynamics (or Game of Interest Groups)
  9. Laws of Civilization Rise and Fall
  10. Unintended Consequences

Usage Guide:

  1. Dynamic Update: In practical application, the model needs to be expanded based on new fields (e.g., AI, Quantum Computing).
  2. Cross-Validation: For the same problem, multiple disciplines must be called upon (e.g., investment decisions require combining Compound Interest, Psychological Biases, Moats).
  3. Weight Adjustment: The importance of the model varies depending on the scenario (e.g., medical decisions emphasize probability, political negotiations emphasize Game Theory).

These models do not exist in isolation; Munger emphasizes solving complex problems through the “Lollapalooza Effect” (the exponential effect generated by the superposition of multiple models). For example:

  • Tesla Valuation = Compound Growth + Network Effect + Behavioral Economics (Social Identity) + Policy Driver (Subsidy Leverage).