Read this before you sell.

If you are reading this, the market is crashing. The indices—QQQ, VOO, and everything else—are likely down 30% or more. The news cycle is screaming that the “bubble has popped,” that “this time is different,” and that the economy is heading for a depression. You are likely feeling a physical knot in your stomach, a mix of regret for not selling at the top and fear that your portfolio is going to zero.

Stop. Take a breath. This moment was inevitable. Do not let the panic of the crowd destroy the plan you built in the calm.

Here are the four truths you knew back then, which you must remember now.

1. You Predicted This (The Blizzard Analogy)

Do not act surprised. Remember your own words: “A future drop of more than 30% is virtually certain—like a blizzard in winter.”

You knew this day would come. You knew that equity premiums are not free; they are the reward you get for enduring exactly what you are feeling right now. The market is not “broken.” It is simply winter. You do not burn down your house just because it is snowing outside; you put on a coat and wait for spring.

2. The “Fair-Weather Tourists” Are Leaving. Let Them.

Remember the crowds who bragged about buying QQQ for the AI boom while claiming they “learned nothing” about stocks? They are the ones panicking right now.

  • They bought a narrative, not a business.
  • They borrowed conviction from a rising chart.
  • Now that the chart is falling, their conviction has evaporated.

You are not them. You did not buy these funds because “line goes up.” You bought them as a bet on human innovation and the resilience of the global economy over decades. That thesis has not changed just because the price has. The tourists are selling their assets to you at a discount. Do not join them at the exit.

3. The “Behavior Gap” Is the Real Enemy

The danger right now is not the market; it is you. Statistics (like the DALBAR studies) prove that the average investor destroys their own returns by selling when the pain is highest. They capture 3% while the market returns 10%.

If you sell now, you are crystallizing a temporary decline into a permanent loss. You are volunteering to be part of the statistic that fails. The only way to close the “Behavior Gap” is to endure the volatility that others cannot.

4. The “Zero” Fallacy

Your brain is telling you, “What if it goes to zero?” Let’s be logical. If the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq-100 goes to zero, it means the 100 or 500 largest companies in the world have failed simultaneously. In that scenario, your brokerage account balance won’t matter—you’ll be worrying about food, water, and ammunition.

As long as civilization functions, the market will recover. It always has.

  • It recovered from 1929.
  • It recovered from the 2000 Tech Wreck (even if it took time).
  • It recovered from 2008.

The Command: Sit on Your Hands

Warren Buffett calls investing a “no-called-strike game.” Right now, the market is throwing wild pitches. You do not have to swing. You do not have to “do something” to fix this.

In fact, the hardest and most profitable action you can take right now is absolute inaction.

Turn off the news. Close the brokerage app. Go for a walk. The blizzard is raging, but you have shelter. Wait it out.

Do. Not. Sell.