最近读了 《Enough_ True Measures of Money, Business, and Life》 by John C. Bogle ,让我对市场的本质有了更深刻的理解。与其说是技术分析和频繁交易,不如说是对企业价值的长期坚守。我想把这些思考整理一下,方便日后回顾,也希望能给正在投资路上探索的朋友一些启发。

Let’s dive into some insightful quotes about investing and what they truly mean.

理解收益的本质 (Understanding the Essence of Returns)

The gross return generated in the financial markets, minus the costs of the financial system, equals the net return actually delivered to investors.

公司的总收益就是投资者的收益

这句话简洁明了地揭示了收益的来源和分配。金融市场创造的总收益,最终要扣除金融系统的各项成本,剩下的才是投资者真正能拿到的。这就像一块蛋糕,切的人越多,每人分到的就越少。

The more the financial system takes, the less the investor makes.

桌子拿走的越多,投资者收益越少

这句是上一句的自然延伸。金融系统的成本,比如交易佣金、管理费用等等,都会直接蚕食投资者的收益。 这也提醒我们,选择低成本的投资方式,长期来看至关重要。

市场的长期逻辑 (The Long-Term Logic of the Market)

“The most that owners in the aggregate can earn between now and Judgment Day is what their business in the aggregate earns.”

投资者只能拿到市场的平均收益

这句话非常深刻,揭示了投资者收益的最终来源是企业盈利。从长期来看,所有投资者的整体收益,不可能超过所有企业的整体盈利能力。 这也意味着,与其试图跑赢市场,不如选择与优秀的企业共同成长。

“When the stock temporarily over-performs or under-performs the business, a limited number of shareholders—either sellers or buyers—receive out-sized benefits at the expense of those they trade with. [But] over time, the aggregate gains made by Berkshire shareholders must of necessity match the business gains of the company.”

投资者只能短时的影响收益

这句话解释了短期市场波动的本质。 短期内,股票价格可能会因为各种因素偏离其内在价值,这会让少数交易者获得超额收益或损失,但这只是财富的转移。长期来看,像伯克希尔哈撒韦这样的公司,其股东的收益最终必然与其业务的增长相匹配。

“In the short run the stock market is a voting machine . . . [but] in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

市场最终是一个称重机

这是本杰明·格雷厄姆的名言,非常形象地说明了市场的短期和长期特性。 短期内,市场像一个投票机,受情绪和各种短期因素影响;但长期来看,市场终究会回归理性,像一个称重机一样反映出公司的真实价值。

“the aggregate gains made by Berkshire shareholders must of necessity match the business gains of the company,”

吹出来的泡沫终会破灭

这句再次强调了价值投资的根本。 短期炒作可以制造泡沫,但最终,公司的价值决定了其股价的长期走向。 那些脱离基本面的泡沫,终将破灭。

投机的陷阱 (The Trap of Speculation)

A simple example demonstrates that speculation is a loser’s game. Assume that one-half of the shares of each of the 500 S& P stocks are held by investors who don’t trade at all, and the other half are held by speculators who trade solely with one another. By definition, the investors as a group will capture the gross return of the index; the speculators as a group will capture, because of their trading costs, only the (lower) net return. The obvious conclusion: investors win; speculators lose. There is no way around it. So the orgy of speculation we are witnessing today ill serves our market participants. It serves only Wall Street.

交易成本的存在,使得投机者的收益必然低于投资者。假设有两个投机者相互交易,而投资者长期持有资产不动。显然,两个投机者的总收益将小于投资者的总收益。

这个例子非常清晰地说明了投机的弊端。 即使假设投机者交易技巧相当,但由于交易成本的存在,他们的整体收益必然低于长期投资者。 频繁交易只会让券商获利。

whenever stock prices lose touch with corporate values and bubbles begin to form, too many market participants seem to anticipate that values will soon rise to justify prices, instead of the other way around.

投机者的 wishful thinking. 他们认为公司的价值很快就会提升,以适应被他们吹胀的泡沫

这是对投机者心理的深刻剖析。 当价格脱离价值时,理性的做法是认为价格会回归价值,但投机者往往会抱有侥幸心理,认为价值会追上被炒高的价格。 这是一种危险的“希望式思维”。

the only swans we humans have ever observed are white doesn’t mean that no black swans exist. For evidence, look no further than the Black Monday I just mentioned.

黑天鹅罕见,且无法避免

这句话提醒我们,市场存在着难以预测的“黑天鹅”事件。 过去的经验不能保证未来,即使我们没有见过黑天鹅,也不能否认它的存在。 风险始终存在,要保持警惕。

长期主义与大道至简 (Long-Term Focus and Simplicity)

American capitalism has demonstrated remarkable resilience, plugging along steadily even as times change, driving growth in earnings and paying dividends that have risen apace over time, in step with our growing economy.

这是目前版本的答案

这句话表达了对美国经济和资本市场长期向好趋势的信心。 尽管会有波动,但长期来看,经济的增长会带动企业盈利和投资者回报。 这也是长期投资的基石。

“opportunities and risks will appear and disappear in short order.” I agree with that proposition. But human emotions and behavioral flaws militate against our capitalizing on them. Count me as one who simply doesn’t believe that market timing works.

永远不要 Timing The Market

市场瞬息万变,机会和风险并存。 但人性中的贪婪和恐惧,往往会让我们做出错误的决策。 试图精确地预测市场时机几乎是不可能的。

It is difficult enough to make even one timing decision correctly. But you have to be right twice.

连续猜对两次的概率很低

即使你成功预测了一次市场拐点,你也需要再次预测才能真正获利。 连续两次预测正确的概率非常低,这进一步说明了择时交易的困难。

For me, simplicity has always been the key to successful investing, and the time-honored wisdom of Occam’s razor,

大道至简

成功的投资往往遵循简单的原则。 奥卡姆剃刀原理告诉我们,如无必要,勿增实体。 选择简单易懂的投资策略,更容易坚持并获得成功。

Wall Street’s perennial advice to its clients:“ Don’t just stand there. Do something!”

券商总是希望你高频率交易

“Don’t do something. Just stand there,”

要我说:别动!看戏就好

这两句话形成了鲜明的对比。 券商鼓励频繁交易以赚取佣金,而理性的投资者应该保持耐心,避免不必要的交易。 “别动!看戏就好” 是一种对长期价值投资的形象表达。

自我负责的重要性 (The Importance of Self-Responsibility)

Managers of other people’s money [rarely] watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which . . . they watch over their own . . . they very easily give themselves a dispensation. Negligence and profusion must always prevail.

只有你自己才能对自己的事情真正上心

管理他人资金的人,往往不如管理自己资金那样谨慎。 这并非有意为之,而是人性使然。 因此,对于自己的投资,我们需要自己负责,认真对待。

“Once you decide whether you expect to be in business for a short time or a long time, most of the right decisions are easy.”

知道方向选择就很简单

一旦确定了你的投资目标是长期的,很多决策就会变得简单起来。 你会更关注公司的基本面,而不是短期的价格波动。

总结 (Conclusion)

这些引言都指向一个核心思想:成功的投资是基于对企业价值的长期判断,而不是短期的市场投机。 了解金融系统的成本,避免不必要的交易,保持耐心和简单,是通往财富增长的正确道路。 希望这些思考能帮助我们在投资的道路上少走弯路,最终实现自己的财务目标。

This blog post summarizes key insights from the provided quotes, emphasizing the importance of long-term value investing over short-term speculation. It highlights the costs associated with the financial system, the difficulty of market timing, and the inherent logic of the market where long-term returns are tied to business performance. The core message is to focus on simplicity, avoid unnecessary trading, and be responsible for your own financial decisions.